According to Labor’s national secretary Paul Erickson, Australians can walk and chew gum at the same time – that was his message to Albanese’s troops just before they departed Canberra for the long winter break.

The context of the remark was the competing challenges confronting the government amid concerns the Prime Minister’s heartfelt commitment to constitutional recognition of First Nations people could be undermined by voters’ struggles with rising interest rates and cost-of-living pressures.

Erickson assured the gathered politicians that the government was travelling well enough on the economy for Australians not marking it down for being distracted by the referendum.

They are more than capable of dealing with different issues at the same time, he said, and the latest Newspoll suggests Erickson is right with Labor’s commanding lead statistically holding despite a slide in support for the Voice, plummeting for the first time behind ‘No’.

Byelection test

The first real-world test of this analysis will come in three weeks when the Fadden byelection on the Gold Coast will be held to find a replacement for the controversial retired member Stuart Robert.

The PM will on Tuesday night launch the campaign for Labor’s candidate, Letitia Del Fabbro, who recorded a slight swing against Robert at last year’s election.

Still, Fadden has a record as a rock-solid Liberal National Party seat and Robert managed to hold it with a margin of just under 11 per cent.

Albanese says Robert didn’t do his voters the courtesy of explaining “why it is he’s resigning under such a cloud” creating the need for an unnecessarily expensive byelection – no doubt a key Labor campaign message.

Just how dark the cloud is over Robert will become headline news in the week leading up to the July 15 vote when the Robodebt Royal Commission hands down its findings.

Queensland Labor was very keen to contest the seat and the Prime Minister shares the view that Del Fabbro, a nurse educator is “a strong candidate” who he says will be “having a crack” despite the long odds against her.

Del Fabbro’s LNP opponent is Gold Coast city councillor Cameron Caldwell, who has a chequered history as a state candidate but won the preselection despite Peter Dutton publicly stating his preference for a woman to get the nod.

The Liberals are hoping the government’s flagged trimming of superannuation tax concessions will convince older, well-heeled supporters to stay loyal.

Against that the Albanese government’s energy bill relief package with the states applies from July and the Palaszczuk state Labor government has announced the most generous response of any of the states for all Queensland households.

Rising to the challenges

In his briefing to caucus, Erickson said that voters have come to know Albanese better and trust him as prime minister. Polling also shows they think Labor is the best party to handle the challenges facing the economy.

The government’s performance on employment growth is one indicator Albanese cites as a reason for this confidence.

He told Parliament: “We had the strongest jobs growth in the first year of any new government.”

Peter Dutton is counting on the downturn “potentially” making voters question Labor’s ability to govern for “all Australians in the tough times and not just the good times”.

The slide in Albanese’s approval and a cutting of his lead as preferred prime minister in Newspoll suggests some basis for the Opposition Leader’s optimism that relentlessly rising interest rates among other things will continue to take the shine off the Prime Minister.

Before that, though, Dutton is clearly counting on the failure of the constitutional referendum to inflict damage on Albanese’s short- and long-term fortunes.

Referendum  claims

The Opposition Leader accuses the Prime Minister of wanting to use the referendum to wedge the Coalition and blame it if the referendum fails.

“That’s the political objective, the underbelly of this debate,” Dutton said.

This piece of projection simply does not wash.

At no stage since the election has Dutton been proactive in supporting the Voice.

His former colleague, and Morrison’s minister for Indigenous Australians, Ken Wyatt said Dutton – like his then cabinet colleagues – showed no interest in progressing the Voice for the whole last term of government.

The fact is, it is Dutton who sees the referendum as a chance to wedge Albanese, counting on firm historical precedent that it is easier to defeat a referendum than win an election.

Albanese says Dutton is the man who opposed the Apology to the Stolen Generations on a spurious scare campaign – none of which came to pass.

In a bitter debate in Parliament at the end of the sitting fortnight, the Prime Minister said Dutton didn’t just oppose the Apology “he actually stood up and walked out”.

Albanese said “that’s the Peter Dutton that Australians know and we’re seeing it played out again”.

Conversations begin

Labor’s Graham Perrett is running a ‘Yes’ door-knocking campaign in his Brisbane seat of Moreton, and says last weekend people were dividing on party political lines, but they were open to genuine conversations on the issues.

The Erickson briefing encouraged Labor MPs that a confident and positive campaign for the referendum can still succeed.

Albanese shares this confidence that a majority of Australians will vote yes. He has certainly invested a lot of his political capital in it.

Paul Bongiorno AM is a veteran of the Canberra Press Gallery, with more than 40 years’ experience covering Australian politics