Rising unemployment increases chances of RBA rate cut in October

More women and older people entering the workforce has driven Australiaâs unemployment rate higher.
Despite the net creation of 34,700 new jobs, unemployment rose to 5.3 per cent in August, up from 5.2 per cent in July.
Economists attributed the small rise in unemployment to the growing number of Australians working or seeking jobs.
Known as the labour participation rate, this figure increased 0.1 per cent to a record high 66.2 per cent.
âThe data today really just confirms more of the same from the labour market,â BIS Oxford Economics chief economist Sarah Hunter told The New Daily.
âThe extra jobs were matched against extra people entering the labour force and so, broadly speaking, the unemployment rate didnât move.â
Dr Hunter said womenâs labour participation rate had been trending up for decades but had âreally lifted quite significantly over the last few yearsâ.
âItâs a good thing, as it shows women are able to go back to work,â Dr Hunter said.
âAnd with the older workers, what weâre perhaps seeing is that now weâre all living a bit longer, people donât feel like they need or want to retire at the same age as the generations before.â
Dr Hunter conceded financial hardship could also have had a small part to play in the growing participation rate â with falling household incomes encouraging more women to earn a second wage, and declining savings forcing older Australians to delay retirement.
âAll we know is itâs definitely happening. And the key question is, how much further does the [rising participation rate] have to run?â Dr Hunter said.
âThat really is so crucial to what happens to wages growth, because at the moment, if youâre a firm looking to hire and you can hire someone who isnât currently employed, that means you donât have to offer a wage premium to attract someone from another firm to move.
âSo thatâs a significant drag on wages growth.â
Underemployment â defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics as anyone aged 15 or older who wants to work more hours and is working less than 35 hours per week â also increased, to 8.6 per cent, or 1.167 million people.
âThis means the unemployment rate is too high [compared with] what it could potentially be which, according to the Reserve Bank, is 4.5 per cent in Australia,â AMP Capital senior economist Diana Mousina told The New Daily.
âSo weâre working below capacity. And that makes sense given that GDP data showed we only grew by 1.4 per cent over the past year.â
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Ms Mousina said the slight uptick in employment underscored the need for further interest rate cuts.
And IFM Investors chief economist Alex Joiner agreed.
That Augustâs unemployment rate was higher than the 5 per cent initially forecast by the Reserve Bank was reason enough for the central bank to cut rates in October, Dr Joiner said.
Doing so would go some way towards bringing down the unemployment rate, which in turn would help lift inflation and kickstart wages growth.
âBut the Reserve Bank canât do it by themselves, and they know that,â Dr Joiner said, referring to RBA governor Philip Loweâs persistent appeals for more government spending.
âWe all know it. Itâs whether anything will change and it doesnât seem like thatâs imminent as yet.â
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