Global body slashes Australian economic growth forecast


Trade expands Australia's opportunities. Photo: AAP
The International Monetary Fund has slashed its global economic outlook amid a âhighly unpredictable environmentâ created by US President Donald Trumpâs tariffs.
The IMF global economic growth has been revised down from 3.3 per cent to 2.8 per cent this year â and the US could be the worst hit.
Australiaâs growth outlook has also taken a severe cut, with annual output forecast to be $13 billion lower in 2025.
Australiaâs economic growth projection for 2025 was downgraded to 1.6 per cent from 2.1 per cent in January â a 0.5 percentage point trim.
In a dire assessment, the IMF said global uncertainties had âclimbed to new highsâ as a result of Trumpâs upheaval of tariffs to levels ânot seen in a centuryâ.
The forecast was released in the IMFâs World Economic Outlook for April on Wednesday (AEST).
The US was given the biggest downgrade, with growth dropping from a previous estimate of 2.7 per cent to 1.8% this year.
âMajor policy shifts are resetting the global trade system and giving rise to uncertainty that is once again testing the resilience of the global economy,â the IMF said in the document.
IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said the global economy was âbeing severely tested once againâ.
He said a major factor behind the growth downgrades was uncertainty created by Trumpâs tariffs and other countriesâ counter-tariffs.
âFaced with increased uncertainty⌠many firmsâ initial reaction will be to pause, reduce investment and cut purchases.â
Despite an equity markets suffering a correction since Trumpâs tariff announcement on April 2, US stocks potentially had further to fall, given price-to-earnings ratios remain at historical highs, the IMF said.
Tariffs will dominate meetings between global financial leaders gathering at the IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington this week.
Finance ministers from around the globe will be eagerly seeking meetings with Trumpâs lead tariffs negotiator, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, to strike a tariff exemption deal.
But a notable absentee will be Australiaâs Treasurer Jim Chalmers, who is tied up campaigning for the federal election.
Chalmers said Australians would be worse off and more vulnerable to global economic uncertainty if Opposition Leader Peter Dutton won the election on May 3.
âAt a time of extreme global uncertainty our responsible approach to economic management has never been more important,â Chalmers said.
âWeâre not immune from the turmoil in the global economy but the progress weâve made together puts us in good stead.â
Australian GDP growth is expected to pick up to 2.1 per cent in 2026, from 2.2 per cent projected in January.
Inflation is projected to come in 0.8 percentage points lower this year than previously forecast, at 2.5 per cent, before accelerating strongly to 3.5 per cent in 2026.
In its Global Financial Stability Report, also released on Wednesday, the IMF warned stretched asset valuations and highly leveraged financial markets could amplify shocks and exacerbate economic downturns.
Financial authorities should be ready to intervene to address severe liquidity or market function stress, the IMF cautioned.
-with AAP
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